This study conducted with Cancer Research UK aimed to quantify the health and economic benefits of GPs routinely delivering stop smoking support to patients during consultations in the UK. Using a microsimulation model over the period 2019 to 2039, a current practice 'baseline' scenario was compared to three opt-out smoking cessation intervention scenarios.
Chronic kidney disease (CKD) represents an important health policy concern due to a growing population and its associated morbidity and mortality. Predicting the future burden of CKD overall and in high-risk populations such as patients with elevated albuminuria, type 2 diabetes (T2D) or heart failure is important if healthcare services are to be resourced properly. Epidemiological and health economic policy models provide a useful way by which to make such predictions, but methods vary. This study aims to compare and validate two different approaches to estimating the burden of CKD in the United Kingdom (UK), and to estimate how this is predicted to change by 2025. In partnership with AstraZeneca.
The COVID-19 Pandemic is projected to cause an economic shock larger than the Global Financial Crisis of 2007/2008 and a recession as great as anything seen since the Great Depression in 1930s. The social and economic consequences of lockdowns and social distancing measures, such as unemployment, broken relationships and homelessness create potential for inter-generational trauma extending decades into the future. In the absence of a vaccine, governments need to introduce Universal Basic Income (UBI) as a means of mitigating this trauma.
In 2019, we reviewed Universal Basic Income (UBI) trial design and findings in comparison with the social gradient in health literature and biopsychosocial theory to identify knowledge gaps. The findings highlight a need to refocus UBI trials on improved health, including via reduced stress, to provide policy makers the means of producing accurate cost-benefit analysis. Previous trials have either not reflected likely UBI policy or failed to measure impacts that enable accurate analysis.
Transport for London (TfL) and the Greater London Authority (GLA) commissioned HealthLumen to quantify the health impacts of policies designed to reduce levels of air pollution and improve long-term health. This 2020 study estimates the number of new cases of disease and the resulting costs to the NHS and social care system under three scenarios from 2016 to 2050. The results from this study show that the ULEZ policies and broader, more all-encompassing LES policies have important impacts on the health of Londoners.
A study to systematically review bariatric surgery, weight-management programmes (WMPs) and orlistat pharmacotherapy for adults with severe obesity, and evaluate the feasibility, acceptability, clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of treatment.
The Brief Intervention for Weight Loss Trial enrolled consecutively attending primary care patients who were obese and participants were randomised to physicians opportunistically endorsing, offering, and facilitating a referral to a weight loss programme (support) or recommending weight loss (advice). We use a cohort simulation to predict effects on disease incidence, quality of life, and healthcare costs over 20 years.
Smoking is still the biggest preventable cause of cancer in the UK, and the biggest cause of premature mortality and health inequalities. This study used a state of the art simulation model to measure dynamic changes in smoking prevalence in the UK over time by age, gender, sex and socio-economic status.
The Brighton declaration arose out of a one day workshop held in September 2013 as part of the Society for Social Medicine annual conference. The declaration describes the value and importance of non-communicable disease modelling, both for research and for informing health policy. This article, written by the UK Health Forum modelling department, discusses the declaration.
This study projected educational inequalities in obesity and smoking prevalence to 2050 based on past obesity and smoking trends by education level. The conclusion was that widening educational inequalities in obesity and smoking prevalence are expected in several European countries if current trends in obesity and smoking prevalence are unaltered. This will impact on inequalities in morbidity and mortality of associated diseases such as diabetes, coronary heart disease and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.