When you need a future-facing decision engine for real world population health and pharmaceutical product lifecycle questions, we are the people to turn to.

How can we help you?

Using the power and trusted methodology of our microsimulation platform we provide critical support in market planning, scenario analysis and healthcare policy solutions.

Our “intervention modelling” estimates the health and economic impacts of a range of interventions, including public health policies and new drugs for entire populations, or specific subgroups.

By comparing different scenarios, decision makers can make informed choices before real world implementation.

We work with:

  • Pharmaceutical companies
  • Government bodies, and Public Health Organisations
  • International Development Organisations
  • Health and environmental campaigning charities
  • Universities
  • Biotech investors

We combine our unique population model with data, literature and policy analysis to help organisations in the private and public sector to:

  • Estimate future disease prevalence and burden
  • Quantify the health and economic value of solutions or “interventions” designed to prevent or manage chronic health conditions
  • Quantify the impact of industry and public policy changes
  • Evaluate randomised trials into the future
  • Generate evidence for policy change
  • Make emerging technology investment decisions
  • Evaluate the impact of new or altered interventions or therapeutic treatments
  • Evaluate the market to determine the potential for therapeutic solutions, improving sales and revenue forecasting
  • Analyse and respond to epidemiological and related economic problems


Examples of the questions we can answer for conditions such as obesity, liver disease, chronic kidney disease, and type 2 diabetes are:
  • What is the future burden of the condition in any particular geographical region of interest?
  • What are the most cost-effective interventions to reduce the prevalence and incidence of the condition?
  • How is the condition expected to vary by socio-economic group into the future?
  • What is the impact of joint risks on the condition into the future?
  • What is the impact of proposed policy solutions on the condition?
  • What is the long-term effectiveness of one drug over another?
  • What is the optimal price point for a new drug based on clinical effectiveness into the future?
  • How do specific risk factors (such as BMI) impact later risk of disease, future quality of life and utilisation of the health system?
  • How can progression of the disease be reduced, including non-pharmaceutical?
How we do it

We’ve created a specific process to help you find, ask and answer the right questions.

It’s based on a methodology and software platform our team spent over a decade developing as part of the UK Health Forum, before being acquired by HealthLumen in 2019.


We’ll help you define the population you need to look at and think through the scenarios or interventions you would like to explore. You’ll be confident you’re asking the right questions and are clear on what you need our answers to achieve.


We’ll create a starter scenario showing you how your chosen population would develop if left untouched. Then you can explore the outcomes of different kinds of change or intervention, comparing them with the starter scenario to map out their real-world impact.


We’ll interpret the data for you, giving you plain language answers to your original questions. That will help you translate those answers into messages, briefs and guidance to support future actions.

By taking account of dynamic changes in behavioural and environmental risk factors over time, plus changing demographics, such as ageing, we can accurately map out the future to assist your decision-making process.

HealthLumen’s modelling helps organisations to understand the future burden of non-communicable diseases, and quantify the long-term impact of proposed interventions, thereby assisting decision-making before real-world implementation. This interactive visualisation is a representative example from our secure online decision-support platform.

Successive additions of annual cases of a disease. For example, the cumulative incidence between 2020 and 2024 would be the sum of all new disease cases in each of those years.

Read more about this project on our blog: How leaving the car at home might improve health