Inequalities in smoking and obesity in Europe predicted to 2050

This study projected educational inequalities in obesity and smoking prevalence to 2050 based on past obesity and smoking trends by education level. The conclusion was that widening educational inequalities in obesity and smoking prevalence are expected in several European countries if current trends in obesity and smoking prevalence are unaltered. This will impact on inequalities in morbidity and mortality of associated diseases such as diabetes, coronary heart disease and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

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Forecasting Future Trends in Obesity across Europe: The Value of Improving Surveillance

This project projected the prevalence of obesity across the WHO European region and examined whether the WHO target of halting obesity at 2010 levels by 2025 is achievable. The results were that by 2025, obesity is projected to increase in 44 countries. If present trends continue, 33 of the 53 countries are projected to have an obesity prevalence of 20% or more.

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Reducing Tobacco Use Through Taxation in Trinidad and Tobago : Modelling the Long Term Health and Economic Impact

In this World Bank report, our microsimulation model predicted the health and economic impacts of increasing tobacco tax in Trinidad and Tobago. Tobacco is a major contributor to the rise in Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) and is often linked to the increase in cardiovascular and respiratory diseases and various forms of cancer. This study quantifies the impact of increasing tobacco tax in Trinidad and Tobago on the future burden of smoking-related diseases.

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High Rates of Obesity and Non-Communicable Diseases Predicted across Latin America

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) such as cardiovascular disease and stroke are a major public health concern across Latin America. We used our microsimulation model to project BMI and related disease trends to 2050. We tested the extent to which interventions that decrease body mass index (BMI) have an effect upon the number of incidence cases avoided for each disease. Without intervention obesity trends will continue to rise across much of Latin America.

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Alarming predictions for obesity and non-communicable diseases in the Middle East

This study used our microsimulation model to project obesity trends and future obesity-related disease for nine countries in the Middle East. We found that high rates of overweight and obesity increased in both men and women in most countries. Obesity is a growing problem in the Middle East which requires government action on the primary prevention of obesity.

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F as in Fat: How obesity threatens America’s future

In this report we modelled the long-term health impacts of obesity in each US state. The results were used as part of an annual report produced by Trust for America’s Health and sponsored by Robert Woods Johnson Foundation.

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How would a 20% sugar tax change the UK’s obesity rates?

In 2016, we helped Cancer Research UK show that a 20% sugar-sweetened beverage tax could stop 3.7 million people from becoming obese by 2025. That’s a 5% decrease in national obesity levels. It would save about £10 million in direct NHS healthcare costs in the year 2025 alone.

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How much will tackling local air pollution save the NHS?

In 2018, we worked with Public Health England, Imperial College School of Public Health and Imperial College Business School. Together, we created a new tool that helps local authorities estimate how much they could save the NHS by taking action on air pollution.

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How can European states choose the most cost-effective public health policies?

The European Commission asked us to look at the long-term economic impact of different chronic disease prevention, screening, and treatment interventions in eight European countries. That led to a Europe-wide consensus on how to measure the cost-effectiveness of different types of interventions. We also created a user-friendly downloadable tool that lets users compare their impact on a like-for-like basis

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How will the types of jobs UK adults do affect whether or not they’re obese?

We looked forward to 2035 to see what kind of impact social inequality will have on obesity. We found that by then, UK people aged 16 and older working in routine or manual jobs will have the highest levels of, and greatest increases in, obesity.

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