This study conducted with Cancer Research UK aimed to quantify the health and economic benefits of GPs routinely delivering stop smoking support to patients during consultations in the UK. Using a microsimulation model over the period 2019 to 2039, a current practice 'baseline' scenario was compared to three opt-out smoking cessation intervention scenarios.
In 2019, we reviewed Universal Basic Income (UBI) trial design and findings in comparison with the social gradient in health literature and biopsychosocial theory to identify knowledge gaps. The findings highlight a need to refocus UBI trials on improved health, including via reduced stress, to provide policy makers the means of producing accurate cost-benefit analysis. Previous trials have either not reflected likely UBI policy or failed to measure impacts that enable accurate analysis.
A study to systematically review bariatric surgery, weight-management programmes (WMPs) and orlistat pharmacotherapy for adults with severe obesity, and evaluate the feasibility, acceptability, clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of treatment.
The Brief Intervention for Weight Loss Trial enrolled consecutively attending primary care patients who were obese and participants were randomised to physicians opportunistically endorsing, offering, and facilitating a referral to a weight loss programme (support) or recommending weight loss (advice). We use a cohort simulation to predict effects on disease incidence, quality of life, and healthcare costs over 20 years.
Smoking is still the biggest preventable cause of cancer in the UK, and the biggest cause of premature mortality and health inequalities. This study used a state of the art simulation model to measure dynamic changes in smoking prevalence in the UK over time by age, gender, sex and socio-economic status.
The Brighton declaration arose out of a one day workshop held in September 2013 as part of the Society for Social Medicine annual conference. The declaration describes the value and importance of non-communicable disease modelling, both for research and for informing health policy. This article, written by the UK Health Forum modelling department, discusses the declaration.
We looked forward to 2035 to see what kind of impact social inequality will have on obesity. We found that by then, UK people aged 16 and older working in routine or manual jobs will have the highest levels of, and greatest increases in, obesity.
Our REBALANCE project, a collaboration with the University of Oxford, analysed the impact of different weight management programmes on severely obese over-18 year olds. That helped the NHS assess and understand the long-term cost-effectiveness of these programs, then choose which one to go ahead with.
Public Health England asked us to help policy and decision makers understand how tax and pricing changes can change consumer choices, and through that improve their health. We looked at a range of different existing policies, then created a reference database of the ones that had definitely worked. It shows people where the evidence for the success of those policies is strongest and where there are gaps in the literature.