Inside CKD: projecting the economic burden of chronic kidney disease using patient-level microsimulation modelling

As part of the ongoing collaboration between HealthLumen and AstraZeneca to quantify the health and economic burden of Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD), this poster, presented at ISPOR 2021, demonstrates that the burden of CKD is projected to increase by 2026 for all 11 countries included in this analysis. This highlights the need for national policies aimed at early intervention to slow disease progression and reduce healthcare costs.

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Quantifying the epidemiological burden of anemia of CKD in the USA and Canada via microsimulation modelling

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a debilitating condition that affects approximately 10% of the global population. Anemia is common in patients with CKD, occurring in approximately 15% of patients, and is associated with a high risk of complications and reduced quality of life.

The number of patients in the USA and Canada who will be affected by anemia of CKD over the next 5 years and who will require treatment has not been reliably estimated. This study, commissioned by AstraZeneca, projects the epidemiological burden of anemia of CKD in the USA and Canada using a patient-level, microsimulation-model.

In the USA the prevalence of stage 3a–5 CKD with anemia is projected to increase from 5.4 million cases in 2021 to 6.9 million cases in 2026. In Canada, the prevalence of anemia of stage 3a–5 CKD is projected to increase from approximately 1.5 million patients in 2021 to 2.2 million patients in 2026.

The projected increasing prevalence of advanced CKD and associated anemia, as well as the estimated increases in numbers of related cardiovascular (CV) events and patients who will require treatment, could put healthcare systems under greater pressure, and demonstrates a need for healthcare policy in the USA and Canada to prepare to support this patient population.

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Estimating the future burden of chronic kidney disease through microsimulation methods

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a debilitating and costly condition, affecting over 10% of the global population and linked with increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all-cause mortality. People in the early stages of CKD are often asymptomatic; as many as 44% may remain undiagnosed until CKD has progressed to a more advanced stage. Early diagnosis of the at-risk population may be possible through implementing routine screening policies. Early diagnosis and proactive medical management are known to mitigate the rates of progression of CKD to end-stage renal disease and may improve clinical outcomes. The aims of this study were 1) to estimate the epidemiological and cost burden of CKD in the UK from 2020 to 2025 assuming no change to current practice and 2) to estimate the impact of routine screening and subsequent early intervention on future disease burden and healthcare costs. Undertaken in partnership with AstraZeneca, this study is now being rolled out to over 20 countries.

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Estimating the burden of CKD

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) represents an important health policy concern due to a growing population and its associated morbidity and mortality. Predicting the future burden of CKD overall and in high-risk populations such as patients with elevated albuminuria, type 2 diabetes (T2D) or heart failure is important if healthcare services are to be resourced properly. Epidemiological and health economic policy models provide a useful way by which to make such predictions, but methods vary. This study aims to compare and validate two different approaches to estimating the burden of CKD in the United Kingdom (UK), and to estimate how this is predicted to change by 2025. Undertaken in partnership with AstraZeneca, this study is now being rolled out to over 20 countries.

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