This study projected educational inequalities in obesity and smoking prevalence to 2050 based on past obesity and smoking trends by education level. The conclusion was that widening educational inequalities in obesity and smoking prevalence are expected in several European countries if current trends in obesity and smoking prevalence are unaltered. This will impact on inequalities in morbidity and mortality of associated diseases such as diabetes, coronary heart disease and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.
This project projected the prevalence of obesity across the WHO European region and examined whether the WHO target of halting obesity at 2010 levels by 2025 is achievable. The results were that by 2025, obesity is projected to increase in 44 countries. If present trends continue, 33 of the 53 countries are projected to have an obesity prevalence of 20% or more.
Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) such as cardiovascular disease and stroke are a major public health concern across Latin America. We used our microsimulation model to project BMI and related disease trends to 2050. We tested the extent to which interventions that decrease body mass index (BMI) have an effect upon the number of incidence cases avoided for each disease. Without intervention obesity trends will continue to rise across much of Latin America.
This study used our microsimulation model to project obesity trends and future obesity-related disease for nine countries in the Middle East. We found that high rates of overweight and obesity increased in both men and women in most countries. Obesity is a growing problem in the Middle East which requires government action on the primary prevention of obesity.
In this report we modelled the long-term health impacts of obesity in each US state. The results were used as part of an annual report produced by Trust for America’s Health and sponsored by Robert Woods Johnson Foundation.
In 2016, we helped Cancer Research UK show that a 20% sugar-sweetened beverage tax could stop 3.7 million people from becoming obese by 2025. That’s a 5% decrease in national obesity levels. It would save about £10 million in direct NHS healthcare costs in the year 2025 alone.
We looked forward to 2035 to see what kind of impact social inequality will have on obesity. We found that by then, UK people aged 16 and older working in routine or manual jobs will have the highest levels of, and greatest increases in, obesity.
Our REBALANCE project, a collaboration with the University of Oxford, analysed the impact of different weight management programmes on severely obese over-18 year olds. That helped the NHS assess and understand the long-term cost-effectiveness of these programs, then choose which one to go ahead with.