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Early intervention for preventing NCDs: generating evidence for the health and economic impact, using microsimulation modelling
Non-communicable diseases (NCDs), including heart disease, stroke, cancer, diabetes and chronic lung disease, are the leading causes of death worldwide. A recent report by FP Analytics sets out the scale of the problem and the health and economic burden of NCDs. These conditions share a common set of risk factors of which the main ones […]
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Reducing Failure Rates of Phase 3 Clinical Trials: how microsimulation modelling can assist
Of the three main phases of clinical trials, by far the most expensive part of the process is the Phase 3 trial, typically requiring from several hundred to several thousand participants and costing up to $20 million on average. Furthermore, the process is fraught with risks with up to 70% of Phase 2 trials and […]
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Intern Series (4)
We’re pleased to share the latest in our series of posts from our interns. Daniel Ohrenstein has just completed an extended 5-month stay with us working on some exciting new techniques for multiple risk factor modelling. Daniel Ohrenstein I recently completed an MSc in Machine Learning and Data Science at UCL, having graduated with a […]
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2020 Summer Intern Series (3)
As we move into the autumn, we’re pleased to share the last in our series of posts from some of our first summer interns. Annie Estlin I recently graduated from the University of Cambridge with an MPhil in Epidemiology. It’s been incredibly exciting to work for HealthLumen this summer and apply my learning in the […]
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2020 Summer Intern Series (2)
In the next installment of our summer intern series, we hear about the “day in the life” of one of our interns. Yousef El-Tawil Hello! I am a medical student by background at Kings College London and I am currently completing my intercalated MSc in Global Health Policy at the London School of Economics. […]
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2020 Summer Intern Series (1)
Like everyone else, the HealthLumen team has been working hard these last few months to continue our work and navigate the new realities of a COVID-19 world. We have written about the role of modelling in post-COVID-19 decision making and have been working with various partners on the links between NCDs and COVID-19 outcomes. Despite […]
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Simulating the future: The role of computer modelling in a post-COVID-19 world
In collaboration with our charity partner The Royal Society for Public Health. Our COO and Co-Founder Laura Webber has set out the role of computer modelling in decision making in the post-COVID-19 world. Our first guest blog for RSPH. For further resources on COVID-19 please visit the RSPH COVID-19 hub. This resource is being updated […]
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2020 Vision: And beyond
The term “20/20 vision” informally denotes perfect eyesight. So, moving into the year 2020 it is an apt metaphor for our goal, which is to help improve global population health through better decision-making. Our forecasting methodology – based on a microsimulation model – integrates health, economic and population data from multiple sources as a baseline […]
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A sweet alignment: Microsimulation and the soft drinks levy
In the weeks before his election Boris Johnson called for a review and potential roll back of ‘sin taxes’ which bemused experts, including the public health community. He stated that “once we leave the EU on 31 October, we will have a historic opportunity to change the way politics is done in this country. A […]
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Microsimulation modelling for policy change
How do you answer questions about the health of the population? How do you test ideas for policy and intervention change when the option for an experiment or randomized control trial does not exist? High level, national public health policies can have a significant impact on shaping and creating the environments – physical, food, healthcare, […]